How to Read Esports Odds (and Spot Value)

Odds are just probability with a margin baked in. Once you can read them, you can spot value.

Decimal odds to probability

Implied probability = 1 / decimal odds. So 2.00 = 50%, 1.50 = 66.7%, 3.00 = 33.3%. If you think a team's real chance is higher than the implied probability, that's a value bet.

The bookmaker margin

Add up the implied probabilities of all outcomes, it'll be over 100%. That overround is the book's margin. Sharper, low-margin books run thinner margins, which is why line-shopping pays.

Putting it together

1. Estimate the true probability yourself (form, maps, H2H).
2. Convert the offered odds to implied probability.
3. Bet only when your estimate beats the implied number, at the best available price.