Expected value calculator

EV = p × (odds − 1) × stake − (1 − p) × stake. A bet at decimal odds of 1.90 breaks even at 52.6% win probability: if your estimate is above that, the bet is +EV; below it, the bookmaker margin is eating you. Every profitable betting strategy reduces to finding +EV prices and staking them consistently.

Decimal oddsYour win probability, %Stake

Expected value: +0.45 per bet
Edge: +4.5%
Break-even probability at these odds: 52.6%

18+. Positive EV requires your probability estimate to be right; bet responsibly.